SOCIAL NETWORKING

Don't be fooled by the flow of VC funding or the fact that Google Inc. and MySpace are in on it. The truth is, mobile social networking is not as cool as its fixed Internet brethren. An obsession with user-generated content, coupled with the ability to exponentially extend your circle of friends -- and your popularity -- shot social networks to the top of Web traffic charts.

And so it is all to easy to (mistakenly) assume that consumers want to bask in a constant stream of this ego boosting fodder by connecting to these networks from the mobile phones that we carry with us.

In reality, while 33% of consumers regularly log onto MySpace, Facebook, etc. from their PCs, just 8% do so from their mobile phones. This divide can largely be blamed on usability and availability (or lack thereof), and pricing of mobile social networking.

With that in mind, I've put together a wish list of what should happen in 2008 to drive mobile social networking.

• The creativity of Web 2.0 comes to the mobile Web. Enabled by open access initiatives from Verizon Wireless, Google, and others, consumers will have the power to choose their content. Developers will be chomping at the bit to answer their cries with new apps and new functionality such as location.

• HTML browser phones are priced for the mass market. There were 80 million MySpace page views from Sidekicks in March 2006. Consumer-focused devices like Research In Motion Ltd.'s BlackBerry Pearl, Apple Inc.'s iPhone, and LG Electronics Co.'s Voyager facilitate more browsing, necessary because client apps are not widely available across handsets or carriers, and they aren't free. That brings me to my next wish.

• Client apps are free. Mobile operators' battle to differentiate from competition resulted in exclusivity contracts such as a MySpace Mobile client application on AT&T Mobility for $3 that did nothing to empower consumer choice or entice them to use mobile social networks. RIM's free Facebook application is a model to follow.

• Unlimited data plans become more available and more affordable. Nearly half of active data users subscribe to a data plan, but nearly all of those consumers are paying for a messaging plan only.

But I'm a realist. Here's what will probably happen.

• Cool new applications will be subscription-based. Old habits die hard. Cool new mobile social networking applications enhanced with location will be charged at a monthly rate and carriers will validate the subscription by saying location information is a value add.

• Social networking fatigue begins to set in. The lifespan of social networking is still in question. History shows that what is cool today may not be tomorrow. SixDegrees? Friendster?

• Bundled voice and data service plans become more common. Service plans such as Helio L.L.C.'s All-In Membership and Verizon Wireless' America's Choice plans makes consumers think they are getting a deal, and protects them from unpleasant data charge surprises.

For every new startup, two will leave. The value of a network is only as high as its size. Lacking a brand name and a solid distribution strategy, startups face an eternal struggle to boost membership.

Editor's Note: As part of our inaugural Annual Wireless Industry Outlook, RCR Wireless News has assembled some of the industry's most respected research analysts to share their views on the opportunities and challenges ahead in 2008 for various segments within the industry.